Japan's Nikkei reported Anthropic's initial public offering (IPO) target valuation at $2 trillion (about ¥318 trillion). Kentaro Kawabe, former chairman of LINE Yahoo, quoted the article and reacted, "Will the Claude Code company list at ¥317 trillion?", and it spread from there.
Nikkei noted that if this figure materializes, it would exceed SpaceX, which listed in June at $1.77 trillion.
$2 trillion edges toward SpaceX's market cap
Anthropic confidentially filed for an IPO in June, and a listing as early as this October is expected. The lead underwriters are Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase.
The $2 trillion that investors are discussing is above the $1.77 trillion at which SpaceX listed in June. If realized, it would be the largest IPO ever.
14x revenue behind the valuation
Q2 2026 (April to June) revenue was $11.5 billion, up more than 14x from a year earlier, and operating results reportedly turned profitable. As of July, annualized revenue stands at $65 billion.
Investors are using a forecast that raises the revenue target to $200 billion by 2028 as the basis for the valuation. Whether that forecast will actually come true hasn't been verified yet.
Some investors say "given Anthropic's growth pace, even $2 trillion is conservative," while others voice concern that the valuation leans too heavily on revenue forecasts.
Cheap Chinese models shake the premise
Fortune's separate analysis pointed to the rise of low-cost open models from China and a chip-collateralized financing structure as sources of uncertainty in the valuation.
Anthropic executives told the Financial Times that they haven't officially set a target IPO valuation. The final offering price could change with market conditions at the time of the October listing.